The only way to compare point in time estimates from one time to another is to use the same methodology each time. It is not clear from LAHSA’s reports how their methodology has changed, as Bill reports that it has. In addition, when one is counting “visibly homeless” people, as LAHSA did, one has to assume that the proportion of “visible” homeless people does not change. As many people who work at the ground level know, increased police pressure in many areas has caused homeless people to seek out locations where they are less likely to be seen.

LASHSA’s data are also inconsistent with other information, including recent administrative data from the General Relief program, from which the County says that about 50,000 of the 83,000 on General Relief are homeless. And previous studies have consistently found that only a fraction of homeless people are receiving General Relief.

LAHSA credits the change in numbers counted to economic and policy changes, which may or may not be the case. LAHSA makes claims about, for example, the contributions of increases in permanent supportive housing and extremely low income housing to the reduced estimates. But there are much more direct ways for LASHA to determine, and tell the public, what those numbers are. It is much easier to count housing units than homeless people.

By any acceptable methodology, which LAHSA’s may turn out to be after a full vetting, the key point is the one made by Bill Pitkin: The number of unsheltered and unhoused people in Los Angeles is still extremely large by the standards of any other community in the U.S. It is a little early for self-congratulation.